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Why Energy Efficiency ?

Table of Contents

Energy Driving Forces
World Crude Oil Prices
Canadian Natural Gas Prices
Energy vs. Economic Activity
Energy Efficiency
World Energy Consumption Forecast
Inefficient Canada
Changing for the Better
Seeking Proper Balance
It Pays to be Efficient
New Economic Driving Force
 

Energy Driving Forces

  • Natural Gas Prices Up 136% in 5 years
  • Crude oil price up 5 times greater than 1998 price (22.3% increase per year, every year, for 8 years)
  • Climate Change & Extreme Weather Conditions
  • Kyoto Limit for Green House Gasses

These are but a few of the forces acting upon our lives.  Canada's economy, social programs, and livelihood are directly connected to our natural resources, and our energy consumption.  See the following graphs.

World Crude Oil Prices

The world currently consumes about 80 million barrels per day of crude oil.  There is only 1 million barrels per day of excess capacity.  We therefore calculate that the world's oil production is running on average, at 98.8% of capacity.  Any threat or real interruption in the flow of oil will have an immediate and violent effect on the price of oil.  Recent price volatility, speculation, hoarding, and similar behaviours confirm this analysis.  For the last 60 years, oil is usually priced between US$12 to US$28 per barrel, with a median price of US$22.86 per barrel.  Currently, it sells for over US$60 per barrel due to on-going conflict in oil producing nations (Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, etc.), and a small capacity buffer.  For detailed analysis, see WTRG's Historic Oil Pricing analysis

PDVSA is Venezuelan's state-owned oil company

Canadian Natural Gas Prices

There have been some huge spikes in natural gas pricing, mainly associated with California's energy shortage, and rising use of natural gas for generating electricity through combined cycle gas turbines.  With only a 12 year supply of natural gas left at current rates of consumption, is there any hope in lower gas prices in the future?  The graph is courtesy of The Energy Shop.
 

Energy vs. Economic Activity

Click on the image for a full sized view.

Equally true for the poorest and richest, the link between energy consumption and Gross Domestic Product for a nation has been known for almost a hundred years.

In this 1961 data, Canada is shown as the 2nd highest energy consumer per capita in the world (USA is #1).  In 1961, Sweden had almost the same GNP as Canada, but consumed only 61% of the energy.

Not an envious position for Canada.

Energy Efficiency

The above chart shows more recent data (2002) on energy Efficiency (BTU's consumed per $GDP created).  This graph shows that Canada (red curve) has been improving at about the same rate (% improvement per year) as the USA.  However, Canada is the leading consumer of energy per $GDP produced (ie. Canada is the least efficient nation in the G7).  Canada is 33% less energy efficient that the USA.

Mexico (Yellow curve) has gained #2 spot for energy inefficiency as their economy has grown in the past 40 years.  Note little or no improvement over a 20 year period.

The USA (Green curve) has made significant gains. in the last 40 years, and is consistently 33% better than Canada on energy efficiency.

The overall average for the G7 is shown in blue. The G7 consists of United Kingdom, the United States, France, Canada, Italy, Japan and Germany.

 

World Energy Consumption Forecast

The above graph is from International Energy Outlook 2001, March 2001, Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585

"EE/FSU" is Eastern Europe/Russia.

Between 1998 and 2020, world energy consumption is expected to rise by 55%.

Coal, oil, nuclear, and natural gas are the major supplier of energy.

Alternative supplies (wind, solar, etc.) are growing, but dwarfed by fossil fuels and nuclear.

Inefficient Canada

Canada and US energy consumptions are significantly higher that the rest of the G7 nations, and therefore shift the G7 average up significantly.  This means that Canada and US are significantly worse than the next closest G7 nation. At the Bohn G7 Summit in 1978, it was agreed to achieve a 0.8 ratio between the rate of increase in energy consumption and the rate of increase in gross domestic product.

There are many reasons for Canada's energy inefficiency.  We have a cold climate.  We have had (in the past) an abundance of energy to supply (or over supply) our wasteful habits.  We have specialized in industries that are very energy intensive (ie. aluminium smelting, steel, plastics, etc.)  If it weren't for Canada being blessed with an excess of oil & natural gas, we would have been in significant trouble.

Today, Canada has only a 12 year supply of natural gas reserves remaining at our current consumption/export rate.

After that, we will have to buy foreign LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) at huge expense.  At our currently poor efficiency for energy usage, Canada will receive a severe, abrupt shock throughout its society when this occurs.

With better energy efficiency, we can make our natural gas supplies stretch out farther into the future.  Also, as energy prices rise, we will be able to better cope & adjust.

 

Changing for the Better

It takes time to change.

That is why it's imperative we start now, before it is too late to change our energy inefficient ways.

In addition, Canada's inefficient lifestyle significantly contributes to Green House Gasses (GHG), global warming, climate change, melting artic ice (and rising sea levels), air/water/land pollution, and many more negative effects.

More and more of our earnings are going to feeding our energy hungry lifestyles.  To continue in the same manner means we have to do without something else.

Energy efficiency is our duty to ourselves, our fellow Canadians, and all other humans, plants, & animals who are stuck sharing this planet with us.

When both population and energy consumption per capita are on the rise, we get exponential growth.  The overall quality of life depends upon many factors such as clean water and air, green areas for recreation, and availability of goods and services to readily meet our needs.  We need energy to grow food, and transport it to market.  We need energy to build and maintain housing.  We need energy to transport people and goods.  We are not talking about conservation for no purpose.  To have and not use serves nobody, and squanders our bounty.  To use this bounty foolishly, or wastefully is what we need to avoid.

 

Seeking Proper Balance

Proper balance must be drawn, and re-drawn as we learn & practice better habits.  We must balance between uncontrolled, wasteful consumption, and the undesirable plan (or need) to severely restrict energy use to the point that our standard of living is substantially lowered, or killed.

 

It Pays to be Efficient

With growing energy costs, a significant economic advantage can be obtained by energy efficiency.  Traditionally, energy costs were only 2% of the total cost for the average manufacturer.  Today, this cost is growing at 5.6% per year.  Even today, a manufacturer can no longer ignore the energy cost equation.

For example, over 97% of the total cost for an electric motor is the energy that motor will consume over its lifetime.  Why would you want to save a few pennies in the purchase price, thereby forcing you to pay thousands of dollars in excess electricity costs for that motor's operation?  Is it not better to buy the most efficient motor you can afford?

Many energy efficiency projects have a 3 year payback.  Some projects PQA has worked on pay for themselves in 3 months.  PQA recommends making decisions not just on today's energy costs, but the projected future costs over the life of your business processes.

For example, let's assume you are doing a retrofit to an existing process, or plan to build a new process, and that retrofit has a planned life expectancy (ie. it will be operated & depreciated) for the next 20 years.  What will the energy costs be between now and 20 years from today?  If you base your process design on just today's energy prices, you will get a totally different design.  PQA recommends you design with the discounted cash flow median price over the 20 year life expectancy.  This will always result in a more energy efficient design, taking you to the payback point sooner than those who lag behind the energy price curve.

The sooner you start to save, the sooner you reach a positive cash flow from energy efficiency.

The energy rich nations (ie. Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc.) realize that once people feel forced to put extra insulation in their walls, or buy an ultra efficient electric motor, etc. they won't rip those solutions out when the price of energy subsequently drops.  They realize that every spike in the price of energy will drive customers away permanently.  That hurts their long term cash flow and profits.  Why do you think OPEC insists on stable energy pricing?  Through price stability, OPEC lulls everybody to sleep while they maximize their long term profits.

You have heard that a frog who is thrown into boiling water will immediately jump out.  However, if a frog is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, the frog will stay there until it is fully cooked and ready for eating.  Get the picture?  Now, what do you want to do about energy efficiency?  All frogs put up their hands.

While lower costs are a benefit, it's not the only one.  There are 9 Competitive Factors.  Only one of these is price.  In addition, you can align yourself with the "Moral Majority" who believe in conservation, ecology, Green Action, and similar initiatives.  These consumers want ethical, energy efficient suppliers.  They are willing to pay a premium for these special goods and services that align with their personal philosophies.

Green and efficiency will provide you a marketing differentiation.  This leads to a marketing advantage, higher profits, and an increase in market share.

For example, GM, Ford, and Daimler-Chrysler have mandated that all their facilities, and all their suppliers must be registered to ISO 14001 Environmental Management standard.  Energy conservation is an integral part of ISO 14001's requirements.

 

New Economic Driving Force

Based on these trends, PQA can now predict (you heard it here first, on Mar. 20, 2006), the next primary economic driving force for the 2010's decade, as follows:

1980's   Quality (defects, prevention, Voice of the Customer, reliability, etc.)
                 predicted in 1979 by G.Black, PQA President

1990's   Globalization (standardization, Mergers & Acquisitions, strategic partners)
                 PQA predicted in 1988

2000's   Velocity (speed of response to market opportunities)
                  PQA predicted in 1994

2010's   Energy (efficiency, supply, utilization, conversion, price, etc.)
                  PQA predicted in 2006

           
 

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